Monthly review of the hottest whiteboard and white

Monthly review of whiteboard and white cardboard: Whiteboard first stabilized and then rose. White cardboard fluctuated and moved up (December 2020)

release date: Source: zhuochuang paper

1 monthly market analysis

whiteboard prices moved up at the end of the month after continuous stabilization this month, and market trading was tepid. Data monitoring shows that in December, the average monthly ex factory price of grade a 250g gray bottom whiteboard including tax was 4922/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.84% and a year-on-year increase of 19.47%. As of December 31, the mainstream transaction price of 250g white board paper in the market included tax reference price/ton. The main reasons that affect the price trend of this month are: first, at the end of the month, nine dragons base increased by 100/ton, and small and medium-sized paper mills followed the increase by/ton, but the market trading has not changed much; Second, the whiteboard paper mills in East China, central China and North China began to limit production and centralized maintenance in the middle of the month, and some specifications were in short supply. Some sources of goods from South China flowed into East China, supporting the strong price of paper; Third, under the influence of the ban on waste paper, the price of waste paper fluctuated and moved up, and the white cardboard scale paper mill raised the price again, boosting the confidence of the industry, with strong support from the cost side and substitutes; Fourth, as Fuyang area is about to retire in January, the reduction of whiteboard supply is expected to increase, but packaging plants are cautious in replenishing inventory, and the increase in demand is limited

after the price hike of the white cardboard scale paper mill in December, the market price rose slightly. The price of orders received by large-scale paper mills at the end of December or at the beginning of January continues to move up by 300/ton. According to zhuochuang data, in December, the average monthly tax inclusive cash transaction price of G plain white cardboard market was 6978/ton, up 4.11% month on month and 22.02% year on year. As of the end of the month and December 31, the mainstream transaction price of G plain white cardboard Market included tax reference price/ton. The main reasons affecting the price rise this month are as follows: first, the price of large-scale paper mills continues to rise, traders are under pressure to buy high and sell low, and the profit is under pressure. The offer moves up with the price policy of paper mills, and the implementation is different across the country; Second, the imported pulp outer disc and futures continued to rise, and the spot market rose significantly, and the cost side supported the upward movement of the white cardboard price; Third, under the influence of domestic and international public health events, the inventory pressure of large retailers in the south is large, the opening of Spring Festival orders in the north is limited, and the market trading sentiment is not high; Fourth, the current high price of white cardboard hovers, and the risk pressure of traders and terminal funds is large. At the end of the year, it is mainly to withdraw funds

2 upstream raw material market analysis

2.1 waste paper market analysis

according to the monitoring data, the average price of national waste yellow paperboard in December was 2246/ton, with a month on month increase of 5.24% and a month on year increase of 5.59%. In December, the factory price of national waste yellow paperboard rose. This month, the demand of paper mills for waste paper is uneven, the purchase interest of mainstream paper mills is unusually high, and the purchase interest of small and medium-sized paper mills is relatively general. Driven by the continuous rise in the purchase price of waste yellow paperboard from mainstream paper mills, the factory price of waste yellow paperboard in China rose this month. Forecast: zhuochuang predicts that the national waste yellow paperboard will fluctuate in the factory price range in January. In January, the market trading atmosphere gradually faded, and the waste paper suppliers' operation was mainly to actively reduce the stock, which may be detrimental to the trend of waste paper price stage, but the stock preparation of paper mill raw materials will also be carried out, forming a certain support for the waste paper price

according to the monitoring data, the monthly average price of national waste book paper in December was 2165/ton, with a month on month increase of 5.92% and a month on year increase of 1.12%; The average monthly price of national waste newspapers was 2673/ton, up 6.07% month on month and 2.84% year on year. In December, the price of domestic waste book paper and waste newspapers continued to rise. The reasons for the price rise of national waste book paper and national waste newspaper are as follows: 1 In anticipation of the ban on the import of foreign waste, the market has increased concerns about the tight supply of domestic white waste, and large domestic paper enterprises have raised the purchase price of white waste for many times; 2. Domestic whiteboard prices are running at a high level, and the operating rate of paper enterprises is rising. Increase the stock of white waste, which may be transferred to drugs through packaging; 3. Due to the relatively tight supply of goods, and under the guidance of the expected price rise, the enthusiasm of domestic packaging stations to receive goods has increased, the recycling price has also increased significantly, and the reluctance to sell has increased; 4. The periodic peak demand season of some domestic paper varieties also contributed to the rise in the price of white waste. Forecast: it is expected that the price of domestic waste book paper will rise slightly in January 2021. On the one hand, the tight supply of domestic waste book paper continues. The recycling price of the packaging station is high, and the mentality of being reluctant to sell is heavy, so the paper price is not easy to fall; On the other hand, after entering the middle and late January, the domestic spring festival atmosphere will increase, the production and procurement of paper enterprises will slow down to a certain extent, the market trading will weaken, and the price will gradually stabilize

in November, the waste market as a whole was priceless. Since November, shipping companies have stopped booking space for imported waste paper due to concerns that the Chinese customs will increase penalties for imported solid waste. On November 25, the Ministry of ecological environment, the Ministry of Commerce, the national development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Customs issued the announcement on matters related to the total prohibition of the import of solid waste, saying that the import of solid waste in any way is prohibited. The announcement will come into force on January 1st, 2020. The announcement made it clear that "the import license of solid waste that can be used as raw materials in the restricted import category issued in 2020 should be used within the validity period of 2020 specified in the certificate, and will take effect automatically after the expiration of the period". Due to the limited shipping and the tight supply of goods in the main foreign waste exporting countries, the foreign waste approval limit of some domestic paper enterprises may be difficult to complete the import within the validity period and can only be voided. On the whole, the waste import inside and outside the year has basically ended

2.2 wood pulp market analysis

the spot market price of imported wood pulp rose sharply this month, and the transaction in the pulp market was rigid demand, some of which were self delivery sources of paper mills. The factors that affect the price trend mainly include the following points: first, the price of pulp futures continued to rise sharply during the month, driven by the impact of news (rising sea freight, macro loose expectations, vaccine put into use, tight supply of wood chips, etc.) and capital leading factors; Second, the new round of imported wood pulp outer disc reported an increase of us/ton. It is reported that the outer disc of coniferous pulp has been effectively traded one after another, and the cost pressure in the domestic spot market has increased in the late stage; Third, the downstream base paper enterprises successively issued several price increase letters during the month, including the implementation of household paper base paper/ton, and the narrow deregulation of pulp inventories in major regions and ports, which boosted market confidence; Fourth, downstream cultural paper enterprises have successively issued shutdown and overhaul letters, affecting the output of about 200000 tons of cultural paper base paper, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, putting pressure on pulp market confidence; Fifth, under the influence of waste paper policy, the price of natural color pulp is high. According to the monitoring data of zhuochuang information, as of December 31, the monthly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5096/ton, with a month on month increase of 8.68% and a year-on-year increase of 13.92%; The monthly average price of imported broad-leaved pulp was 3894/ton, with a month on month increase of 10.37% and a year-on-year increase of 4.76%; The acceptance price of the first batch of major projects was 4774/ton, with a month on month increase of 2.44% and a year-on-year increase of 8.27%; The monthly average price of imported chemical and mechanical pulp was 3688/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.54%. Forecast: according to zhuochuang information analysis, supported by the cost of pulp outer plate and futures, the downstream paper mills just need to stock up, and the price of pulp will further increase with the domestic scientific and technological strength, or maintain a shock finishing situation

3 next month's market forecast

the production capacity in Fuyang area of white board retreated in January, and it is estimated that the production capacity of teenagers will be reduced by million tons. However, under the influence of uncertain factors of domestic public health events, the enthusiasm for goods preparation during the Spring Festival will be slightly reduced, and zhuochuang expects that the price of white board will remain strong in January

scale paper mills have a clear desire to increase, but the orders for the Spring Festival are still uncertain, the market uncertainty is large, and the overall supply of paper mills is stable. Zhuochuang expects the market price of white cardboard to rise steadily in January, and it is suggested to pay attention to the production scheduling plan of scale paper mills during the Spring Festival