Monthly report of synthetic rubber in August and f

August synthetic rubber monthly report and September forecast

1. Market analysis in August

1. CIS polybutadiene rubber:

affected by the continuous warming of styrene butadiene rubber market, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber market showed signs of rebound in Brinell hardness testing work mainly used for aluminum alloy, titanium alloy and alloy structural steel ring parts in August. Enquiries in local markets began to increase, the market transaction atmosphere gradually improved, and market prices in some regions began to rise. The rising price of raw materials made the production costs of cis-1,4-polybutadiene enterprises rise. In addition, the price difference between cis-1,4-polybutadiene and styrene butadiene exceeded the rational proportion, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market reversed and rose at the end of August as expected. The sales companies of PetroChina and Sinopec have successively raised the quotation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and the market has attracted attention again. The hype atmosphere is strong, and the market operators have a stable mentality and enhanced operational initiative. However, due to the negative impact of the recent decline in natural rubber prices on the Shunding market, the space for this rise should be restrained. At present, the production of domestic petrochemical enterprises is basically normal, and the overall supply is still relatively abundant. The strength of this rebound needs to be further verified

main favorable factors in the market:

(1) the price of raw butadiene has risen sharply, the quotation of domestic enterprises is generally at yuan/ton, and the supply is relatively tight recently. Some domestic Shunding enterprises have a low production load due to the shortage of raw materials

(2) the market price of styrene butadiene rubber is high. The market price difference between rosin styrene butadiene rubber and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is about 2000 yuan. The price of oil filled styrene butadiene has also exceeded that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. The huge price gap has a pulling effect on the cis-1,4-polybutadiene market

(3) recently, dealers and downstream manufacturers have gradually increased their attention to cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and the market hype atmosphere has increased. Rumors about the imminent increase in the quotation of petrochemical enterprises have also gradually increased. The market is optimistic about the future of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber

main adverse factors:

(1) the price of natural rubber has continued to fall recently, and the price has fallen sharply, which has a certain impact on the operating mentality of synthetic rubber market operators. All links of the market are gradually cautious about the operation of CIS polybutadiene rubber

(2) although the early market players are generally optimistic about the future of Shunding, the price of petrochemical enterprises remains stable, which slows down the rise of Shunding market and increases the market wait-and-see atmosphere

2. Styrene butadiene rubber:

styrene butadiene rubber rebounded and rose in early August, which fully reflects its strong resistance to decline. Under the guidance of the market trend without obvious direction, supply and demand can no longer be used as the main influencing factors. Under the influence of many factors, such as the manufacturers' adjustment of production and sales prices, the high and falling of related products, the lagging sales of products caused by EU anti-dumping, and the impact of imported styrene butadiene on the domestic rubber market, the positive and negative game alternately occupy the market. After the end of seasonal adjustment, the domestic market price has made a positive breakthrough, and some regions have broken through the early resistance level of 19000 yuan/ton. Due to the scarcity of transactions, After touching the high point of 19000, styrene butadiene quickly recovered its rising tentacles. As of the end of the month, it was subject to the integer pressure of 19000 and fell in reverse direction. Restricted by bad news such as the sharp fall in the natural rubber market of related products and the sharp fall in crude oil futures, the upward resistance of the market was significantly increased, and some regional markets began to ship in succession, and the price began to decline

market forecast in February and September

1. Butadiene rubber:

after a period of high-level consolidation, supported by the sharp rise in raw materials, under the influence of fully occupying a favorable mentality, the reversal of the market is just around the corner, which can also be said to be expected. Market players are generally optimistic about the future of Shunding. On the premise of occupying the absolute psychological advantage, the increase of raw material costs has also enhanced the driving force for Shunding to walk high and the opportunity to stop falling and rebound. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will play a leading role in September and is expected to occupy an all-time high

2. Styrene butadiene rubber:

the trend of styrene butadiene rubber was strong in August. After touching the high point of 19000 at the end of the month, it continued to maintain a strong momentum supported by the cost of raw materials styrene and butadiene, but the overall market participation enthusiasm weakened. The rise and fall of related products butadiene rubber and natural rubber have a weak impact on styrene butadiene. The adjustment of Russian styrene butadiene rubber anti-dumping tax rate has a certain negative impact on the styrene butadiene market in September. Considering the impact of all aspects, it is expected that styrene butadiene will still be at a high level in September. At the end of September, with the negative expectation of the increase in the supply of imported styrene butadiene, styrene butadiene may be frustrated and suppressed

main influencing factors of the market:

(1) butadiene and styrene have increased significantly recently, and the production costs of synthetic rubber production enterprises remain high. From the perspective of cost, the profit space between the higher cost pressure of synthetic rubber and the slightly lower ex factory price has gradually narrowed, and there has been an upside down. Sinopec and PetroChina will not always yield profits and promote sales, and there is a great possibility of joint price promotion in the near future

CIS polybutadiene cost: 14500+2400=16900, ex factory price in Yuan

styrene butadiene cost: 14500*0.72, up to more than 100000 times 7+12850*0.343+3000=17950, ex factory price in Yuan

(2) the three products interact and support each other

the price gap between natural rubber, styrene butadiene rubber and CIS polybutadiene rubber continues to widen. Take the price in Shandong Province as an example: in August, 2005, butyl benzene 14900, Shunding 15800 and Tianjiao 15 set the speed range switch 30 at 0 degrees/min ⑶ 60 degrees/min at 800; In August, 2006, the price difference between the three major rubbers has exceeded the rational range. The interaction between related products determines the space for the price difference. The current decline in the high level of natural rubber can also be seen as a rational return of the natural rubber market, and the future trend of the overall market will continue to develop along the balanced trend. The three kinds of glue always need to find a balance point, which depends on the capital orientation, cost accounting and the real value given by the market

(3) the number of imported rubber has decreased significantly, and the impact strength of domestic rubber has decreased.

the outer disc styrene butadiene rubber has risen sharply recently, boosted by international crude oil, with South Korea and Japan styrene butadiene dollars; Southeast Asia butylbenzene 1850 US dollars; US $1750 for butylbenzene in Russia; Compared with July, the increase was in US dollars. The soaring external market limited the increase in the number of imported rubber, and the impact on the domestic rubber market in August was reduced

(4) since August 22, 2006, import operators have imported from taoliaticachu, Russia "The design center will try to connect different industries with styrene butadiene rubber produced by 1 Qike Co., Ltd. and varonex kachuk open joint stock company, and shall pay anti-dumping duties to the customs of the people's Republic of China according to the adjusted anti-dumping duty rate. The anti-dumping duties are calculated at the ad valorem price determined by the customs, and the formula is: anti-dumping duty amount = customs duty price." × Anti dumping duty rate. Import value-added tax shall be levied ad valorem at the customs value plus tariff and anti-dumping duties

adjust the anti-dumping duty rate applicable to Russia's taoliattikauchuk Co., Ltd. and Russia's varonesh kauchuk open-ended joint stock company to: togliattikauchukltd: 6.81%; Voronezhsintezkauchuk, Russia: 4.02%

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